Chennai: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued an alert for isolated heavy rainfall across parts of Tamil Nadu today and tomorrow, as the regional weather transitions under the combined influence of multiple atmospheric systems following Cyclone Montha.
On Wednesday morning, thick cloud bands were seen advancing toward Sri Lanka and the southern Tamil Nadu coast, signalling the approach of easterly waves—a typical feature of the Northeast monsoon that often triggers rain along the southern peninsula.
Change in Weather Pattern
After Cyclone Montha swept away much of the available moisture last week, Tamil Nadu has now returned to an intermittently wet phase. On Tuesday, Meenambakkam Airport recorded 3 cm of rainfall, while Narsapur in coastal Andhra Pradesh received 2 cm. Parts of north-west India, particularly the hill regions, also reported thunderstorms due to an active western disturbance.
Causative Systems in Play
A well-marked low-pressure area persists over the north-east Bay of Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast, expected to move north-northwest along the coastline. Simultaneously, an upper air cyclonic circulation remains positioned over the west-central Bay of Bengal, off coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Further north, a cyclonic circulation over north Pakistan—linked to a western disturbance—extends a trough across Sri Ganganagar (Rajasthan), while another circulation over north Haryana continues to fuel thunderstorms over northern hills.
Regional Rain Outlook
The IMD’s forecast includes:
- Tamil Nadu: Isolated heavy rain today and tomorrow, followed by light to moderate rain or thunderstorms through the week.
- Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema: Light to moderate rain or thunderstorms today and tomorrow.
- North Interior Karnataka: Rain and thunderstorms likely today.
- South Interior Karnataka: Wet conditions expected for the next three days.
- Coastal Karnataka: Rain activity expected to pick up on Thursday and Friday.
Typhoon Kalmaegi’s Influence
Adding a global dimension, Typhoon Kalmaegi—currently intensifying over the South China Sea after crossing the Philippines—is expected to influence weather dynamics over the Bay of Bengal. Meteorologists suggest it could enhance easterly wave activity, potentially leading to renewed rainfall along the Sri Lanka–Tamil Nadu corridor.
Kalmaegi, forecast to make landfall over Vietnam and Cambodia, has already caused severe destruction and casualties in the Philippines. Meanwhile, global models are tracking a new tropical system (W31)—soon to be named Fung-Wong—forming near Guam Island in the western Pacific, which could evolve into a super typhoon in the coming days.
Outlook
With the onset of these systems, weather experts expect Tamil Nadu to experience frequent spells of rain through the week, signalling an active Northeast monsoon phase after a brief lull post-Cyclone Montha.
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