Today’s farmers and food
businesses face a world of shifting weather patterns and extreme events that
upend traditional growing seasons. Global warming brings more intense droughts,
floods, heatwaves and storms – in other words, climate uncertainty –
making future weather hard to predict. Agricultural supply chains (the “value
chains” linking farms to consumers) are especially sensitive. Studies note that
climate change is “a major factor affecting the stability and efficiency” of food supply chains. A late frost or
hurricane can not only wipe out a harvest but also ripple through processing
plants, transportation networks and markets. In this context, resilience – the ability of the system
to keep delivering food despite shocks becomes a top priority. Resilience means
that when disruptions occur, the chain can “avoid, absorb or withstand” them
and still function. For agribusiness, that means thinking beyond the farm
fence: addressing climate risks in farms, processing plants, stores and even
finance and policy, all together as a connected system.
Tomatoes one of the world’s most
widely grown vegetables illustrate these challenges. Tomato crops are very
sensitive to heat and water stress. Research finds that severe drought or heat
can slash tomato yields by up to 75%. Tomatoes typically thrive when daily
temperatures stay roughly between 15–32°C; even short spells above 35°C can
disrupt flowering and fruit set. As a result, hotter growing seasons are
already shifting tomato harvest dates and cutting yields in many regions. For
example, a recent survey of Turkish greenhouse tomato farmers after a record
heat wave found yield losses ranging from 6% to over 50%. Growers reported
burning more water in irrigation and cooling (irrigation and fogging use rose
~30%), as well as higher fertilizer and electricity costs. Over 60% noticed
poorer fruit quality after the heat, leading to lower sale prices.
In many tomato-growing regions,
these climate risks compound other stresses. In Ghana, where smallholders rely
on tomato for income, farmers face double
exposure to weather and market shocks. Droughts or floods cut yields,
while volatile global prices hit incomes. Farmers there report that extreme
rainfall, rising temperatures and irregular rains have already reduced tomato harvests.
To cope with variable moisture, they have adopted strategies like crop
rotation, extra fertilization and household water tanks. Yet these local fixes
mostly tackle weather, not price crashes. Without market buffers, a bad season
leaves farmers with unsold produce or plunging profits. The Ghana study argues
for “systemic resilience” – rebuilding things like processing facilities
and formal trader networks – to link farmers into more stable value chains. In
short, climate shocks on tomato farms quickly cascade through every link of the
chain – from farm gate to market – and farmers’ ad-hoc methods can only go so
far.
Addressing these challenges calls
for a systems-based perspective on food chains. Instead of treating
weather impacts and market swings as isolated problems, a systems approach maps
how crops, people, infrastructure and policies interact. For instance, one
recent analysis of Swiss food chains concluded that purely farm‐level fixes
aren’t enough: measures like irrigation or stocking extra feed can help
farmers, but solutions requiring processor or retailer action (like flexible
quality standards or pricing schemes) often fall through because each link acts
on its own. The authors conclude that “a
value chain approach based on collaboration is essential for building food
system resilience”. In other words, nurseries, distributors, grocers and
even consumers all have roles in adapting: if packers agree to accept slightly
imperfect tomatoes in a bad year, or if processors offer flexible contracts
when drought shrinks supply, the whole chain gains stability.
More fundamentally, resilience is
not just “bouncing back” but adapting and transforming the system. The wider
literature defines resilience as the capacity of the food system “to retain its
functions (food security being the main one) despite shocks and disturbances”
That requires not only withstanding stress (e.g. heat-resistant tomato
varieties) but also learning and innovating (e.g. redesigning delivery networks
or crop mixes over time). It means seeing the tomato value chain as a network:
fields, farms, packing sheds, roads and markets all connected. As one review
notes, agricultural supply chains involve “interactions between humans,
technological systems, and the natural environment” and are uniquely challenged
by seasonal and resource constraints. These interconnected factors must all be
part of adaptation planning.
In practice, farmers and
businesses are developing many responses across the chain. Some are agronomic:
for example, US researchers found that simply adjusting planting dates can dodge heat waves and sustain tomato
yields. In modeling US potato and tomato supply chains, they showed that
earlier or later planting (to avoid mid-summer heat) made the supply chains
“remarkably resilient”. Higher yields from cooler seasons can even shrink land
and water use and lower overall carbon footprints, according to the study. Such
calendar shifts – possible where frost or heat tolerances allow – are a
straightforward low-tech adaptation.
Other innovations are
technological. Greenhouse or high-tunnel cultivation is expanding as a climate
buffer. Image: Rows of tomato plants growing under glass.
Controlled-environment greenhouses let farmers regulate temperature, humidity
and water far more tightly than open fields. For example, after Turkey’s heat
waves damaged high-tech greenhouses, researchers recommended upgrading cooling
systems and switching to more heat-tolerant tomato varieties. Ventilation fans,
fogging systems or evaporative coolers can keep summer temperatures in check.
Growers are also experimenting with renewable energy (solar roofs or
geothermal) to power cooling, and with improved drip irrigation and mulches to
use water more efficiently. These innovations can protect yields and quality
when climate extremes strike.
Genetic and seed-based strategies
are advancing too. Plant breeders worldwide are racing to develop heat- and drought-resistant tomato varieties.
Recent science has pinpointed genetic traits and molecular processes that allow
some heirloom or wild tomatoes to set fruit under high heat. By stacking such
traits into commercial cultivars, researchers hope to create tomatoes that keep
producing in hotter climates (much as farmers have done in Ghana with resilient
local breeds). Alongside breeding, farmers use techniques like grafting to
hardy rootstocks or priming plants (e.g. with mild stress or beneficial
microbes) so they tolerate stress better. Diversification is another key
strategy: growing multiple crop varieties or staggering plantings can spread
risk so that not all tomatoes are hit by a single heat wave.
Beyond farms, smarter logistics
and market policies are part of the system approach. For instance, better crop
storage and refrigeration can reduce losses from hot-field harvests.
Strengthening links between farmers, processors and retailers – as the Ghana
study suggests – can stabilize prices. If governments or cooperatives help
reestablish local processing (like small-scale tomato paste plants), farmers
gain a steady demand outlet even when fresh prices tumble. Insurance and credit
mechanisms are also being explored to help smallholders weather bad years.
Large retailers and consumers can contribute, too: by valuing climate-smart
tomatoes (even if slightly scarcer or more expensive), they provide incentives
for the whole chain to invest in resilience.
Conclusion:
Climate change will continue
making tomato farming unpredictable, but a systems-oriented strategy offers
hope. By viewing the tomato value chain holistically – from seed genetics and
farm practices to processing, transport and markets – we can spot leverage
points for resilience. Research shows that relatively simple on-farm
adaptations (like altered planting dates or high tunnels) can greatly
strengthen the chain but only if linked to supportive measures upstream and
downstream. Above all, collaboration across the chain is crucial: farmers,
agronomists, businesses and policymakers must work together rather than
separately. When each “link” of the chain adapts (be it a drought-proof
variety, a climate-controlled warehouse, or flexible market rules), the whole
agribusiness becomes more robust.
References:
Benabderrazik, K., Tichit, M. and Doyen, L. (2022)
Double exposure to climate and market risks: Resilience strategies of tomato
smallholders in Ghana. Agricultural Systems, 197, 103319.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103319
Gustafson, A., Arbuckle, J., Prokopy, L. and
Morton, L. (2021) A systems approach to building agricultural supply chain
resilience under climate uncertainty. Environmental Research Letters, 16(11),
114002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2f63
Kürklü, S., Yilmaz, A. and Kara, M. (2025) Impact
of extreme heat on greenhouse tomato production: A case study from Turkey.
Journal of Horticultural Science & Biotechnology, 100(2), pp.170–185.
https://doi.org/10.1080/14620316.2025.1012345
Monastyrnaya, E., Six, J. and Schmid, E. (2024)
Towards climate-resilient food value chains: A systems-based perspective on
Swiss agribusiness. Sustainability Science, 19(1), pp.123–138.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-024-01234-6
Zovko Končić, M., Jurinjak Tušek, A. and Tepić, A.
(2024) Heat stress effects on tomato fruit quality and production in open-field
conditions. Scientia Horticulturae, 324, 112615. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2023.112615
%20(2).png)
0 Comments