Stock markets rise slowly but fall fast.
History shows us that every major crash feels like the end… but recovery always happens.
This article summarizes the four biggest market falls discussed in the transcript:
- Harshad Mehta Crash (1992–93)
- Dot-com Bubble Crash (2000–01)
- Global Financial Crisis – Lehman Brothers Collapse (2008–09)
- COVID-19 Crash (2020)
You’ll understand:
- Why markets fell
- How much they fell
- How long recovery took
- What patterns repeat every time
1. Harshad Mehta Scam (1992–1993)
Cause: Stock manipulation using banking loopholes
Nature: India’s first major modern financial shock
Market Behaviour
- Rise → massive (1991–1992)
- Crash → sudden and sharp
- Recovery → ~2 years
Key Learnings
- First time Indian investors saw extreme manipulation
- Confidence shaken but markets eventually recovered
- Pattern established: sharp fall, slow recovery
2. Dot-com Bubble Burst (2000–2001)
Cause: Overvaluation of tech/internet companies in US
Impact on India: Sentiment-driven crash in IT stocks
Recovery Time: ~2 years
Market Behaviour
- Nifty/Sensex peaked
- Fell sharply
- Recovered in about two years
Key Insight
This was the second time India saw a massive correction followed by a 2-year recovery — a repeating pattern.
3. Global Financial Crisis / Lehman Brothers Collapse (2008–2009)
What Happened?
- Lehman Brothers (US financial giant) collapsed overnight
- Comparable to ICICI + HDFC shutting down at once
- Led to global panic
- Satyam scam (2008)
- Huge unemployment
- Market-wide lower circuits
Market Numbers
Bull Run Before Crash (2004–2008):Sensex → 6,000 to ~21,000
Crash:
21,000 → ~8,000
Recovery:
Again took ~2 years (2009–2011)
Key Observations
✔ Massive fall (~60%)
✔ Recovery time again close to 2 years
✔ Pattern repeated for the 3rd time
4. Pre-COVID Bull Run (2012–2020)
Before COVID, India saw a long consolidation + bull run:
| Year | Sensex Level |
|---|---|
| 2012 | ~20,000 |
| 2020 (pre-COVID) | ~42,000 |
This rise took ~8 years.
5. COVID-19 Crash (2020)
Market Behaviour
- High: ~42,000
- Low: ~25,000
- Fall: Extremely sharp
- Recovery: Unbelievably fast (< 1 year)
Why fast recovery?
- Algo trading
- High liquidity
- Faster global coordination
- Machines → no emotions
- Strong FOMO by retail investors
Full Pattern Observed (1991–2022)
| Event | Fall | Recovery Time |
|---|---|---|
| Harshad Mehta (1992–93) | Big | ~2 years |
| Dot-com (2000–01) | Big | ~2 years |
| GFC / Lehman (2008–09) | Huge (60%) | ~2 years |
| COVID Crash (2020) | Sharp | < 1 year |
Why Future Recoveries Will Be Faster
- Algo trading → quicker reactions
- Machine decisions → no emotions
- High liquidity
- More participation by global and domestic investors
- Structural economic strength
Result
✔ Falls will be sharper
✔ Recoveries will also be sharper
✔ Reaction time for investors will be much less
Important Technical Analysis Insight
What we just studied is technical analysis:
“Past price behaviour helps us estimate future possibilities.”
We’re not predicting the future—we’re identifying patterns.
Major Takeaways for Investors
✔ 1. Crashes are normal
Every decade brings a major fall.
✔ 2. Markets always recover
History shows 2 years average recovery except COVID (<1 year).
✔ 3. Don’t panic sell
Short-term fear leads to long-term regret.
✔ 4. Protect capital
Even if you miss some profits, protect your capital first.
✔ 5. Don’t overreact
Every crash feels like the worst-ever…
But the past 30 years show recoveries are guaranteed.
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